The Predictioneer’s Game

Bruce Bueno de Mesquita, author of The Predictioneer’s Game, describes his game theory method as “a way of evaluating how people interact when they are trying to advance their own interests.”The Predictioneers Game, by Bruce Bueno de Mesquita

Bruce Bueno de Mesquita is a professor of politics at New York University and a senior fellow at the Hoover Institution at Stanford University in California. In his new book, The Predictioneer (The Predictioneer’s Game in the US), he describes a computer model based on game theory which he — and others — claim can predict the future with remarkable accuracy.

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Game Theory: The Art Of Acting Rational

Here’s an interesting exercise in game theory:

MoneyYou are in a game show with nineteen other players. You don’t know the other players, you can’t see them, and you can’t communicate with them. The game you are in is called ‘Greed!’, and is straightforward to explain. You are asked to write down a whole dollar amount in the range $1 – $1,000,000 on a piece of paper. You will be paid the amount you asked for if it is deemed to be ‘non-greedy’. Whether your request is indeed ‘non-greedy’ will be decided once all twenty request have been received by the host of the show. Your requested amount will be labeled ‘non-greedy’ if no other player has asked for less, and at least one player has asked for more.

How do you play?

Johannes Koelman @ scientificblogging.com

Via Boing Boing.

See also Game theory.

Bacterial Prisoner’s Dilemma and Game Theory

This might be useful as a game design paradigm:
Bacterial prisoner's dilemma

Scientists studying how bacteria under stress collectively weigh and initiate different survival strategies say they have gained new insights into how humans make strategic decisions that affect their health, wealth and the fate of others in society. The authors of the new study are theoretical physicists and chemists at the University of California, San Diego’s Center for Theoretical Biological Physics. In nature, bacteria live in large colonies whose numbers may reach up to 100 times the number of people on earth. Many bacteria respond to extreme stress — such as starvation, poisoning and irradiation — by creating spores. Alternately the bacteria may ‘choose’ to enter a state called competence where they are able to absorb the nutrients from their newly deceased comrades. ‘Each bacterium in the colony communicates via chemical messages and performs a sophisticated decision making process using a specialized network of genes and proteins. Modeling this complex interplay of genes and proteins by the bacteria enabled the scientists to assess the pros and cons of different choices in game theory. It pays for the individual cell to take the risk and escape into competence only if it notices that the majority of the cells decide to sporulate,’ explained Onuchic. ‘But if this is the case, it should not take this chance because most of the other cells might reach the same conclusion and escape from sporulation.’

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See also:

Prisoner’s Dilemma

Bacteria